July 2010 sales for single family homes dropped from 18 in 2009 to just 9 in 2010.  This was a huge shock to the market – as sales in Western Albemarle typically thrive during the spring and summer months.

However, August showed a slight recovery.  August 2010 sales in Crozet totaled 15…off just 1 from 2009. Part of the bounce back could be attributed to the increased sales activity in Old Trail…3 of the 15 total sales occurred in Old Trail.

Because of the tax credit, Crozet home sales (along with most of the Charlottesville real estate market) were very strong in May and June.  May and June of 2010 sales (37 total) were up significantly over 2009 (16 total sales).

Inventory levels are not outrageous in Crozet…as compared to some other parts of Charlottesville and Albemarle County.  Current inventory levels are around 9 months of inventory as of August.

In addition to sales being up, Days on Market for single family homes in Old Trail has dropped from 199 to 73 over the last 12 months.  Months of inventory has also fallen dramatically – from 17.6 to 8.5.

There are a few factors that are playing into these numbers.  First of all, the Old Trail Village Center and community pool were completed last spring and summer.  These 2 amenities were long promised and removed a bit of uncertainty from skeptical buyers.  Second, a new line of smaller, more affordable homes from Craig Builders, Piedmont Construction, Eagle Construction, and some other builders has offered more options to potential buyers.  Lastly, prices of lots and homes have come back down to earth..making the entire neighborhood more affordable.

The median single family home sold in Old Trail during the period from Aug 08 to July 09 was $618,000.  However, that number dropped to $467,500 from Aug 09 to July 2010.  This drop in median sale price is mostly attributed to the new housing options in the $300k range…something that wasn’t available in years past.

Expect the median home sale price for single family homes in Old Trail to continue to drop over the next year.  The majority of activity will be centered around it’s newest phase in the Village Commons…which features homes in the high $200s and low $300s.  While the Upper Ballard and Creekside sections feature higher priced homes, lot prices have come down a fair amount in those areas and the $800k+ sales will be few and far between.

Looking for some great Holiday Lights this year?  Let Charlottesville’s most innovative real estate brokerage save you a little bit of time.  Our Realtors done some legwork by scouting out some of the best neighborhoods in the Charlottesville area for Holiday Lights.  We’ll spotlight a few ‘Best Of’ lists over the next several days, but we’ll get things kicked off with Crozet. 

Honorable Mention: Grayrock

Grayrock is a beautiful single-family home community located along the western edge of Crozet. The first Grayrock homes were started in 1999. Between its two sections, Grayrock and Grayrock North, there are 152 single family homes, two ponds, a series of nature trails, and other amenities such as a gazebo, tot-lot, and basketball court. Grayrock also offers Blue Ridge Views and easy access to Downtown Crozet, the Old Trail Village Center, and King Family Vineyards.

5. Westhall

Westhall is a charming community of cottage-style homes in fresh, inviting colors set against a wooded backdrop in Crozet. All Westhall homes are ideally located within walking distance to Claudius Crozet Park and the community also features its own private tot lot, green space, and sidewalks. Westhall real estate options include town homes and single family homes.

4. Cory Farm

Established in 1997, Cory Farm is a 67 home neighborhood located in Crozet. Cory Farm homes are 8 miles from the Blue Ridge Parkway and Skyline Drive, yet within walking distance to a variety of shops and restaurants, including the new Crozet Harris Teeter in the Blue Ridge Shopping Center.

3. Parkside Village

Located adjacent to Claudius Crozet Park and within walking distance to Downtown Crozet, Parkside Village consists of a combination of single family homes and town homes. With a traditional neighborhood feel, front porches and sidewalks create a friendly neighborhood environment. All Parkside Village homes are an easy stroll to Claudius Crozet Park, which offers a soccer field, playgrounds, baseball fields, and a community pool.

2. Old Trail

Nestled at the base of the Blue Ridge on over 800 acres, Old Trail Village is a traditional neighborhood development (TND) featuring a Village Center, a community pool, Old Trail Golf, walking trails, and acres of parkland. Old Trail real estate options range from townhomes to carriage homes to estate homes. The Old Trail Village Center includes a coffee shop, restaurants, a day spa, and ACAC Fitness and Wellness – conveniently located within walking distance of all Old Trail homes. Whether you are looking to buy an existing home, purchase a home site, or build your dream home, Old Trail is a must see if you are exploring Crozet real estate.

1. Western Ridge

As one of the most popular communities in Crozet, Western Ridge’s tree lined streets, sidewalks, and Blue Ridge views serve as a strong draw for residents. However, Western Ridge homes also offer access to the community pool, fitness center, tennis courts. nature trails, and pond. Social events abound in this neighborly community. Western Ridge real estate options are expanding with the new West End at Western Ridge phase by Craig Builders.

For more information on holiday lights in the Charlottesville area, check out RealCentralVA for an interactive map.

Though it’s just the beginning, we love our result so far.  Check out one of our videos from a home in Crozet’s Old Trail…

Beautiful Home in Crozet’s Old Trail Neighborhood from Nest Realty on Vimeo.

Stay tuned for more (lots more) Nest videos in the coming weeks and months…. 

2008 was an interesting year for Old Trail.  On one hand, the number of sales dropped for the 3rd straight year.  On the other hand, there was an increase in the number of single family home sales.  On a similar positive note, there were 2 home sales over $1,000,000 ($1,200,000 and $1,030,000) and 1 just under $1m ($999,000).  So, although sales were down and Days On Market almost doubled, there are some positive signs.

ATTACHED HOMES

Let’s talk about town homes first.  When the development first started, town homes were the big seller.  The first few blocks of town homes sold out almost immediately.  After the initial rush during the boiling hot market of 2005 and 2006 (those numbers are so skewed and aren’t really worth analyzing), there were 8 attached home sales in 2007. But only 2 in 2008.

2007 price per square foot for attached homes in OT: $173
2008 price per square foot for attached homes in OT: $163 (down 6%)

In 2008, there were a fair amount of town homes on the market.  However, as I write this, there is just 1 listed for sale.  The rental demand in Old Trail is extremely strong and has actually gotten stronger over the last several years.  Therefore, a lot of the town homes that were for sale are now in the rental pool.

A slowing town home market is not specific to just Old Trail.  Most town homes in areas outside a 10 mile radius of Charlottesville City (Crozet most notably) have seen a drastically slow town home market.  Here’s some stats to back that theory up:

2007 attached home sales in Crozet Market Area: 76
2008 attached home sales in Crozet Market Area: 41  (46% drop)

2007 attached home $/SF in Crozet Market Area: $163
2008 attached home $/SF in Crozet Market Area: $151 (7% drop)

From a development standpoint in Old Trail, there are (to my knowledge) no new town homes planned in the near future.  This will offer a much needed reprieve to the inventory levels of attached homes in Crozet.  With the slowing demand, this lower supply should absolutely help sellers.

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Whereas town home sales numbers have been up and down in Old Trail over the last few years, single family homes sales have been a little more steady. Since single family home sales were typically pre-sales or customs in the neighborhood’s early stages (when the market was on fire), the SF sales numbers never really outrageous.  Here’s the breakdown in sales by year:

2005: 1 sale

2006: 10 sales     /     $216 per SF     /     AVG = $621k     /     Median = $574k     /     DOM = 97

2007: 12 sales     /     $218 per SF     /     AVG = $669k     /     Median = $652k     /     DOM = 125

2008: 15 sales    /     $192 per SF     /     AVG = $659k     /     Median = $593k     /     DOM = 298

The most glaring number for me is the drop in price per square foot from 07 to 08…a 12% drop.  It’s clear that the market slowed and sales prices definitely fell from 2007 to 2008.  Two interesting notes to point out:

1. Hauser Homes began building homes in the new Carriage Park section of Old Trail at a much lower price point than Ballard and Upper Ballard.  This had a direct affect on the lower price/SF

2. The most expensive home that has sold to date in Old Trail (6523 Woodbourne Ln) also had the highest price/SF at $273

I will put the big disclaimer out there that using price/SF in Old Trail as the ‘be all-end all’ factor in determining value is not a great idea…here’s why: there are several unique ‘neighborhoods‘ (Upper Ballard, Ballard Field, Carriage Park, Creekside) within Old Trail that have varying price points, sizes, and finishes.  So, to get a true take on the market, we’ll really need to look at the specific neighborhoods within Old Trail.  Email or call me if you want to get into specifics on that.

The other number that sticks out is the DOM increase from 125 in 2007 to 298 in 2008.  Higher price points are being (very) negatively affected in today’s market (see below for a few reasons why) and the increased DOM is just one result.

LOOKING FORWARD

Don’t expect sales to jump in Old Trail in 2009 for several reasons.  First of all, there is not much new construction going on.  At press time, only three builders (Craig, Beights, and Medallion) are actively building ‘spec’ homes.  Because of market conditions, not too many homes will break ground on spec in 09.  However, there is a healthy (but not overwhelming) inventory of new and re-sale homes right now (14 total that could be moved into now or sometime in the next few months).

Here’s what concerns me for 2009 in Old Trail.  Of the 14 single family homes currently for sale, the average price is $752k and the median price is $715k. That is significantly higher than what sold in 2008.  In addition, these upper-middle price points have been most affected by the current housing and mortgage market.  There are 2 reasons for this:

1. 30 Yr Fixed Jumbo loans (loans above $417k) are averaging between 1 – 1.5% higher than a traditional 30 Yr Fixed.  That’s pretty significant.  So, to buy a $700k house…someone either has to be willing to pay the higher interest rate or they have to put almost $300k down.

2. In addition, most of these $700k buyers need to sell a home.  So….they need to sell a home (you get it).  This makes ready, willing, and able buyers in this price category even less prevalent.

While we are talking in ‘Twos’, the keys to success for Old Trail in 2009 and beyond are two-fold:

1. When will the amenities finally come to fruition? The shops and restaurants of the Village Center have been ‘coming’ for quite so time. However, it looks like they will be opening within the next several months.  I’m hearing late spring/early summer.  We’ll see.  The community pool is also under construction and is slated to be open this summer.  That will be a big draw to potential residents.  There are only a few neighborhoods in Crozet that have a community pool, so it’s a factor in some buyers’ minds.  There is also a Harris Teeter and some new shops coming to Crozet…which puts the area closer to self-sufficiency and should help all Crozet neighborhoods.

2. How will the market and Crozet do in 2009? I don’t think any of us know what is going to happen with the market in 2009 quite yet…so I’ll pass on this right now.  (I will say that I am a realist, but am also seeing some positive signs locally and in other areas.)  As for Crozet: there are some who think that Crozet is too far away from Downtown and doesn’t have enough services.  Two years ago, I agreed. But with the new Harris Teeter and some new shops coming, it’s getting closer to self-sufficiency and should help all Crozet neighborhoods.  The mountains, schools, and outdoor amenities always help (I think) keep the Crozet area popular.

Here’s the 2008 Old Trail Market Report PDF.