Photo Courtesy of Wintergreen Resort

While many folks throughout Central Virginia are enjoying this mild winter, Wintergreen Resort seems to be cursing it.  After a 2009 winter that brought record snowfall to the entire state of Virginia, 2011 marks the second straight winter of warm temperatures and basically no snowfall.  Combine the weather with an economy that is only now starting to chug a little…and that’s a recipe for disaster for Wintergreen.

The Daily Progress and multiple other sources have reported that Wintergreen has seen a $2.5 million operating profit shortfall this season…and it could only get worse if our February heat wave continues.  In other bad news, it has also been reported that Bank of America has terminated Wintergreen’s line of credit.

Sales in Wintergreen and Nelson County have struggled for the past few years.  However, there have been some positive trends in Nelson.  Here are a few from our 4th Quarter 2011 Nest Report:

- Median prices were down only 4.3% from Q4 2010.  Some other areas were much worse.

- Days on Market for sold properties were down about 5% (from 118 days to 112)

- Total sales jumped in Q4: up 15.8% from 2010

- Months of inventory continued to creep down year-over year…decreasing about 4% to 23.1 months.

23.1 Months of inventory is still an extremely high number.  However contracts written in Q4 2011 were also up (almost 20%), so the inventory levels looked like they may continue to decline.

All in all, Nelson County and Wintergreen are beautiful places.  We’re lucky to have them so close.  So, if you are looking for something to do this weekend or searching for a new place to eat, we’re sure that our friends at Wintergreen would love your support.  Here’s a few ideas of things to do there:

Places to Eat at Wintergreen

Places to Stay at Wintergreen

Wintergreen’s Winter Zip Line

Ridgely’s Fun Park for Kids

Wintergreen Snow Tubing

And of course, there is plenty of skiing and ski lessons.

We’re venturing into Nelson County for the next episode in our Live Where You Love video series.

If you haven’t been to Nelson recently, there’s a lot going on.  Between the increased tourism from the Brew Ridge Trail, the Virginia Wine Trail and Wintergreen to Nelson’s sheer beauty, it’s really an amazing part of our region.

Please let us know if there is anything we can do to help you with your Nelson County real estate needs.

The Nest Realty Q4 Nest Report was picked up yesterday by two local news stations.  If you haven’t read our report, check out these quick snippets…and then touch base with your favorite Nest Realty agent to get a little more of a recap.

Overall, we’re using the two words: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM.  For the first time in years, there is actually a string of positive news in real estate.  It’s a combination of positive national news and positive stories locally from the real estate trenches.  Want a great story ‘from the trenches’?  This past weekend, one of our Nest agents, Janice Kavanagh, hosted an open house and had 33 visitors.  Yes, 33!  That’s a sign that buyers are beginning to look.

Here’s the story and video from Charlottesville’s NBC 29.

And here’s one from the Charlottesville Newsplex.

Stay tuned for more analysis on the Charlottesville real estate market in coming days.  We’re really working hard to dig through the numbers so that our agents and clients have a better take on what’s happening in the market.

Overall, we’re seeing some very positive signs in the local marketplace.  Besides many national economic indicators having upward trends, there’s a really good vibe locally…and we hope that continues.

Nest Report Charlottesville: Q4 2011

Nest-Report-Charlottesville-Q4-2011

Overall, the November 2011real estate market in Charlottesville performed about as we expected.  Overall, total year-over-year sales were down (from 174 to 150). Median sales prices in the Charlottesville MSA were also down…by about 3% from November 2010.

There was some positive news, though: the three-year total sales trend is now slightly positive…meaning that sales in recent months are trending higher than what we’ve seen, on average, over the last 3 years.

From the report…

Regional year-over-year total sales dropped in November as compared to 2010. Total sales over the last 12 calendar months (2279) are relatively flat to the prior 12 month period (2327). That, in and of itself, is a victory in today’s market.  Overall median prices in November did drop about 3% from November 2010. Days on Market for sold properties has remained relatively steady over the last 12 months – typically hovering in the 100 to 120 day range. Inventory levels for the entire MSA increased from 14.81 in November 2010 to 16.84 months. While total inventory levels did drop slightly, the drop from 174 to 150 total sales forced the Months of Inventory up approximately 15%.

Even with the drop in sales during November, the three-year sales trend is now slightly positive in Central Virginia. Total sales in all six areas dropped as compared to last November. Notably, Albemarle County sales dipped from 73 to 69 and Charlottesville City sales fell from 21 to 20. In addition, contracts written in Albemarle fell from 94 in 2010 to 75 this past month. Charlottesville City contracts increased from 25 to 26. On a positive note, condos and attached home sales in the MSA increased 40% year-over-year and Months of Inventory fell 21% to 12.97 months.

Nest Report Charlottesville: November 2011

Let’s jump into why sales are down.  We can sum it up pretty easily: 2010 Homebuyer’s Tax Credit.  As you may recall, the tax credit expired in Q2 2010 – thus artificially pumping up sales in that quarter.  Q2 2010 was one of the most active quarters in three years for Charlottesville area real estate.  As expected, sales in Q3 and Q4 2010 dropped fairly significantly after the tax credit expiration.

As you read through this report, you’ll see a lot of similarities between Q2 2011 numbers and Q2 2009 numbers.  Fortunately, total Charlottesville area MSA sales are up about 10% over 2009 .  However, pricing and inventory levels are very similar.  For example, median sales prices for the single family homes are exactly the same ($275,000) and median sales prices for attached/condos are off by only $500 ($195,000 vs. $194,500).

We’ve been talking here for a while that sales will only increase when prices get down to the level where buyers see value.  So, this could be a good sign that buyers see value out there – at least in the properties that are selling.

It’s also interesting to note a few ‘sub-market’ trends.  Single family home sales in Albemarle County were relatively strong this past quarter (down 8% y-o-y) when compared to attached (down 38%) and condominiums (down 34%).  In Charlottesville City, single family homes and attached home sales struggled.  However, City condo sales were up almost 48% from Q2 2010.  The increase in condo sales can be linked directly to price reductions in City condos.

Lower priced homes continue to sell at a much better clip than high priced homes.  95% of City sales and 82% of Albemarle County sales were under $500,000.  Inventory levels for $500k+ homes continue to be extremely high in most parts of Central Virginia.  YTD there have been 125 sales in the MSA over $500,000 and 44 have taken place in Western Albemarle (that’s 35%).  As in year’s past, Western Albemarle continues to have the highest percentage of high priced home sales.  (One other interesting tidbit relating to the over $500k market: 34% have been cash purchases.  Compare that to 21% of the other sales.)

As with past Quarters, distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) are definitely impacting the market and market values.  Foreclosure rates seem to have slowed, but short sales continue to be a common occurrence.  On the positive side, overall inventory levels have creeped down ever-so-slightly.  That trend must continue for the real estate recovery to happen.  But the same story rings true: buyers are looking for values and sellers must be realistic with their pricing expectations if they expect to get their home sold.

Q2 2011 Nest Report Charlottesville

Single family homes continue to be the leading housing type throughout Charlottesville and Central Virginia.  While attached homes and condominiums gained popularity during the boom years (mainly because single family homes became unaffordable to many), there is a definite preference for buyers towards single family homes.  Single family home sales throughout our MSA were up over 15% from Q1 2010…and that’s after a 28.5% increase from 2009 to 2010.  While median prices were down about 5%, Months of Inventory for single family homes has improved drastically to 11.46 months.

Condo and attached sales throughout the MSA stayed steady – we saw a 1% improvement in year-over-year sales.  But Months of Inventory improved another 12% and Inventory levels are now hovering around 14.5.

No one market segment saw any dramatic increases in sales.  Albemarle County remained steady, while sales in Louisa and Nelson continued to improve from dismal 2009 numbers.  Surprisingly, Charlottesville City continues to lag – sales aren’t happening at the rate we would expect and it continues to be an under performing market segment.

Overall, median prices have come down from Q1 2010.  This is expected…and needed for continued recovery.  The biggest issue we are facing continues to be high Months of Inventory levels. Most segments still maintain 10+ months of inventory – this is just too high and tells us that prices still have downward momentum in most market segments.  But with overall sales up, there are definitely some positive trends in the market.

If you are considering selling your home, you must be priced correctly, staged correctly, and marketed correctly.  Otherwise, you’ll have a difficult time generating offers.  In 2010, Nest Realty listings sold in 30 days less time and for 3% more than the average listing in the Charlottesville MSA.  There has never been a better time to hire an experienced, committed, and full-time professional to help you sell your home.

If you are purchasing, continue to do your due diligence.  Don’t assume the list price is the correct value and make sure you are purchasing at the right value.

Feel free to contact a Nest Associate if you’d like to discuss the market more…we’re here to help.

Nest Report Charlottesville: 1st Quarter 2011

Nest Realty Charlottesville’s February 2011 Market Report

Check out Nest Realty Charlottesville’s January 2011 Market Report.

However, 2010 home sales were artificially pushed up to the first half of the year because of the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit. But when the tax credit expired, the market changed drastically. The second six months of 2010 represented a 180 degree change from the first six: buyer interest was down, sales were down, and great homes weren’t getting showings. As the 4th Quarter rolled around, the panic of Q3 began to subside a bit. There was a sense of calmness in the market…and even a few positive signs. While sales were down in most market segments in Q4, Contracts Written during Q4 2010 were up (or relatively steady) in many market segments. Maybe a bit of hope for 2011…

There are definitely still some issues looming. First of all, inventory levels are still too high. A ‘balanced’ market represents approximately 6 months of inventory…many market segments have 12, 18, even 24+ months of inventory. If we think of basic supply and demand, there is way too much supply…meaning prices will probably continue to back off until inventory levels come under control.

The other major issue affecting buyer confidence and values are distressed properties (meaning short sales and foreclosures). Distressed property sales are becoming more common in Central Virginia (this is a national trend, not just specific to us). Distressed sales lead to buyer hesitancy (as they wonder if there is a better deal around the corner) and falling property values (banks are looking to unload inventory, not squeeze a few grand more out of each house). The uncertainty of the distressed home market (i.e. how many foreclosures are coming to the market moving forward?) has, to a certain extent, frozen the market.

Because of these two issues, 2011 could be another rocky year in Central Virginia real estate. If you are a buyer, make sure you make informed decisions by closely analyzing both recent sales and the current competition before making a decision. If you are selling, you need to ensure that your home shows well and that it is priced correctly in today’s market.

Nest Realty’s Charlottesville Real Estate Q4 2010 Market Report