Year after year, it seems that as we sit down to analyze the year that was in the New River Valley real estate market, the phrase we keep coming back to is “supply and demand.” Demand is up, supply is down, and in most cases for 2018, that was the phrase we fell on once again. But maybe, just maybe, that’s changing?
As you read through our 2018 New River Valley Annual Report, you’ll find that in most of the locales we studied that median prices were up, and actual number of sales were down. That has not always been the case in the New River Valley, and to see this shift in 2018 might indicate a re-balancing of the market as we head into 2019. There is nothing to suggest that the real estate market will hit the floor, as it did ten years ago, but certainly the sustained run we’ve seen on increasing prices and rising sales will need to ease in the future, and we may be seeing the beginning stages of that.
Keep in mind that the real estate market in the New River Valley during the Great Recession was relatively stable overall; there were likely a number of factors at play there, not the least of which included the balanced lending environment among lenders servicing the region, the relative lack of foreclosure/short sale inventory, and the Aesop’s Fable approach to price appreciations in the NRV. You’ve heard us say it before – the New River Valley real estate market is very much the “slow and steady” market, which helps home buyers and sellers alike potentially avoid costly mistakes.
One consistent theme in 2018 that has also continued for some time is the fact that, in most markets studied, sales trends tend to continue to favor sellers. In all markets but Floyd County, and Giles County, Months of Inventory remained at less than six months, which indicates that buyer demand is still driving most of our communities. Once Months of Inventory reaches 6 months or greater, we recognize a more balanced market, but for the time being, sellers are still benefitting from that demand. If 2019 sees the number of sales fall again, it will be a good indicator that buyers are starting to gain some leverage back.
All in all, the New River Valley real estate market is strong. The lending environment is stable, financing is still well within reach for most buyers, and interest rates – despite the recent Fed increase – are still historically low for the decade when compared to the last 30-year trend. There will be things to monitor for 2019, but we expect opportunities to be plentiful for both buyers and sellers alike.
Be sure to read the full 2018 New River Valley Annual Report below:
Thanks for making Nest a part of your real estate journey, we’re honored to have been given the opportunity. As always, we are happy to chat about the market, anytime, just connect with one of us and let’s chat!