Nest Market Report: Central Virginia 2008

This won’t be typical to use someone else’s market analysis (even though since I am a CAAR Realtor, it is officially ‘mine’), but it’s important to at least browse through the numbers that CAAR puts out every quarter/year.  Numbers don’t lie, so it paints a fairly realistic picture of the market.  I won’t dwell on specifics of this document, but will touch on a few highlights and will try to offer some additional insight.  Here are the highlights:

– Overall sales in the Charlottesville region were down 22% (2923 total sales, 824 less than in 2007)

  • Albemarle: -31%
  • Charlottesville: -14%
  • Fluvanna: -26.2%
  • Greene: -17.7%
  • Louisa: -2.4%
  • Nelson: -19.6%

– Total sales levels were comparable to 1998

– Median sales prices for the region declined $14,500 year-over-year (-5.2%)

  • Albemarle: +4.3%
  • Charlottesville: -5.4%
  • Fluvanna: -6%
  • Greene: -9.5%
  • Louisa: -6.1%
  • Nelson: -3.2%

– Inventory levels are about steady with 2007. As of January 1, 2008, there were 3,086 homes on the market – compared to 3,072 in 2007.  However, this is considerably less than the 4000+ properties that were actively for sale in the Charlottesville MLS in May 2008.  This significant drop in inventory from May to January is some positive news.  However, it will be interesting to see how many of those properties come back on the market in 2009.  Some may be off for a while, but others were rented during the busy summer rental market and many owners will likely try again when the leases come up.  Inventory levels the past 4 years:

  • 2005: 1588
  • 2006: 2504
  • 2007: 3072
  • 2008: 3086

– Average Days on Market (DOM) for active listings is 189.  Average DOM for sold listings: 119

  • Albemarle: 113
  • Charlottesville: 110
  • Fluvanna: 119
  • Greene: 109
  • Louisa: 108
  • Nelson: 150

– New Home sales are down significantly…there’s no way to sugarcoat it:

  • 2004: 696
  • 2005: 796
  • 2006: 811
  • 2007: 685
  • 2008: 478

Expect that new construction sales number to be even lower in 2009.  New home starts have been down significantly for months.  This lack of new home inventory will help keep overall inventory down.

– Average Price Per Square Foot for the Area: $158/SF (down from 168 in 2007)

  • Albemarle: $168 (down from $175 in 2007)
  • Charlottesville: $186 (down from $196 in 2007)
  • Fluvanna: $135 (down from $141 in 2007)
  • Greene: $143 (down from $152 in 2007)
  • Louisa: $134 (down from $151 in 2007)
  • Nelson: $193 (down from $207 in 2007)

– Attached and Condominium sales are down sharply:

  • Albemarle: From 568 in 2007 to 310 in 2008
  • Charlottesville: From 257 in 2007 to 217 in 2008

Those are the highlights.  Over the coming weeks and months, you can expect some detailed analysis of the overall market, but we’ll also provide ongoing coverage of sub-markets (neighborhoods, school districts, and other definable areas).  It’s important to look at the market as a whole, but even more important to look at sub-markets because we can get some more detailed and reliable data.

Take a closer look at the 2008 CAAR Market Report.

If you would like to discuss market info directly with me or would like a market report on your neighborhood or Area, please email me.

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