Nest’s Sweat the Details podcast continues. We just released our 67th podcast, and we’re excited to bring you interesting conversations that touch on real estate — and how we look beyond real estate for inspiration.
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Summary:
New cars, once part of the American Dream, now out of reach for many; Scarcity = Luxury?; On shoes; Blundstones; What % of real estate – and all – markets are luxury?; Housing availability; Mortage Rate Lock-in; Having kids and demographics; 30% of people don’t have mortgages; 1/3 of new inventory is new construction – historical average is closer to 10%; Scarcity of the right kind of house that buyers need – referencing sandwich generation; Homebuilder sentiment index; Great (builder) profits amid lousy sales; Lumber prices – from a high of $1,500 to current ~$520; Scarcity created in new construction markets; Apartment glut – here or coming?; Remodeling opportunity will abound as the market shifts; Does the speed and ease of communication drive the frenzy and the markets?
We hope you’ll join us for the next episode of Sweat the Details. View the full transcript below.
Keith:
Has real estate become a luxury good period. The ability to purchase, I mean, we’re talking about this scarcity with just this, we’re all kind of accepting the fact that there is an enormous scarcity and enormous pricing differential that we’ve seen. And I think part of what we talk about regularly is the fact that we need housing should be more of a human right, more of an opportunity, more of something that we want as not just a high aspirational attainment, but something that everybody’s searching for.
Jim:
This is Jim Duncan with Sweat the Details and Nest Realty. This week, Jonathan Keith and I talked about luxury and the premise is real estate a luxury in 2023, and we went from there. Hey, Jonathan, Keith, how y’all doing today?
Keith:
We’re good. It is another beautiful day here at Nest Realty.
Jim:
It’s always sunny in Charlottesville. So, Jonathan, how do you define luxury?
Jonathan:
How do I define luxury? That’s a great question. I think luxury kind of depends in on the different, are you talking real estate specific here or are you talking…
Jim:
Real estate is a primer, but then broadly what is luxury?
Jonathan:
Well, I know real estate, we were talking about this, and I’ll maybe steal a little bit of thunder from you, but I wouldn’t necessarily know if I define it this way right now. But we had a conversation with Jonathan Miller, an economic economist four years ago, and he defined luxury as the top 10% of each market. And so, I think that’s a great place to start. Now, is that the same today? I’m not sure that’s what we’re going to be talking about because I think the question we have in our mind and the question that we’ve posed to each other in some conversations over the past couple weeks is all real estate luxury in 2023. So, I’ll leave it with that question. I know we’ll attack it, but what are your thoughts? How do you define luxury?
Jim:
Luxury is having free time while my business still runs.
Keith:
Which is available to only 10% of the agents. And so that points back to Jonathan Miller-
Jim:
Nicely done. Nicely done.
Keith:
Yeah, I think that’s what is luxury is not what is luxury real estate, right? It’s what is luxury as a good, as a commodity, as an ideal, which Jim, you’re speaking to an ideal of what your luxury of life would be to be able to do your job and still have time for family and enjoyment. And I think that there’s a certain amount that a lot of people say that is a luxury right now to be able to take the time, I think to be able to speak of luxury though within markets. I really like Jonathan Miller’s piece because I think for so long we used to think of what’s the price point at which we want to consider luxury. For a long time, it was 750, right?
Jim:
Right.
Keith:
It’s not 750 anymore. Jim, you pulled our local new construction median is now over 800,000 in one of our areas of the county, I think.
Jim:
In Albemarle County in 2023. The…
Keith:
And that’s a median price. So, we’re talking about 50% of homes are new construction homes are going for over 800,000-
Jim:
No, median is about 780, and average is about 880.
Keith:
Okay.
Jim:
Which is up $100,000 a year over year.
Keith:
Which is a crazy high number. When we look back at, we used to consider 750,000 to be luxury market, and I love Jonathan Miller’s take on it because it adjusts the luxury price point on a quarterly basis based on what people are buying. And his model said if you are in the top 10% of the market in terms of ability to purchase, what are you buying? That’s his luxury market and I really appreciate that. I think that’s a good, I like looking at it that way.
Jim:
But I think we talked about cars a little while ago. I mean I think that cars, new cars are a luxury for a lot of people. For a large part of the country, you’re looking at… They’re doing seven-year loans for cars, which is just insane to me. But on average it costs, I think it’s 880 or $1000 a month to operate a car the insurance, car payment averaged like 600, something like that. Parking, maintenance.
Keith:
If you look at Andres Duany as an architect who started the New Urban or was a large part of the new urbanism market, heated a study before Suburban Nation came out, which was 20 years ago. It was before old Trail began because I remember talking with their developer about it. They had a Ford Escort cost $10,000 a year to operate back 15, 20 years ago. And that if you move that forward to what current car prices are, it’s way over 10,000 a year.
Jim:
Yes. I mean I think that a large part of the market, broad-spectrum, the market is luxury right now in the US. So, I think cars, bags, houses, shoes, a lot of it is luxury because it’s not attainable unfortunately for broad part of the country.
Keith:
Let’s talk about the car market for a second because within, if you go to road and track or car and driver or whatever, and you look at the way they break out cars, all of our cars in our market and they call them compact or whatever piece, then they have the luxury tier. That luxury tier is significantly more than 10% of cars sold. I mean that’s a huge percentage. So, are we basing on also used car sales that is… So maybe the luxury piece of new car sales is 10% of the overall car market and that maybe most of within the home homeowner’s market, housing market, new construction becomes part of that luxury piece automatically.
Jonathan:
I would say that as we shift away from housing to more commodities, I would say the conversation of what is luxury shifts from a percentage or a tier of pricing-
Keith:
To mindset.
Jonathan:
… to a perception or a mindset or how it makes me feel or how I think other people perceive me for driving a certain type of car or wearing a certain type of clothes or whatever it is. So, you kind of shift maybe a little bit, I don’t know if there’s any houses in this country that have a brand, maybe there’s some architects and-
Keith:
Absolutely.
Jonathan:
… some builders that have that, but that’s not 10%.
Keith:
There are locations.
Jonathan:
There are locations that have a brand, there are builders in very high-end markets that have a brand that if you have one of their houses and there are architects that wherever you are in the country that have a brand that your house is essentially a museum. But then it’s such a small part of the housing market that I don’t even know if we have the data to talk about that right now, but the perception of clothes and shoes and a lot of other things like those are, and from a commodity standpoint, that’s what I think luxury is.
Jim:
Well, I mean I think it’s a luxury to be able to buy the Blundstone that I have that I’m going to wear forever until they die. It was like 200 bucks, which is I think is a fairly high price for a pair of shoes. But I don’t know, I don’t buy shoes. I buy rainbows and I buy Blundstone. But I think that maybe that’s a luxury. I think it’s a luxury to be able to buy that nice thing that lasts forever instead of a crappy pair of shoes that you have to go replace every six months.
Jonathan:
So, it’s kind of a want versus a need scenario. So yeah, that you don’t need them, but you want them, and you have found a way to allocate your resources towards that. So, it’s a luxury for you.
Jim:
But I think is it a scarcity question though? I mean there a Blundstone is no less available than an Asics, right? I mean if I want either one, I can go into a store and get them. So, scarcity a question because on certainly listening to the podcast on the founder of On, he said, you cannot be a luxury shoe without creating a scarcity of supply that he instantly recognized he wanted a shortage every single year. Then they came out with their models to be able-
Jonathan:
To go on.
Jim:
… to be able to get the price perception he wanted.
Jonathan:
They produced only a certain amount and then that shoe was gone after a certain point in time, and you couldn’t get it.
Jim:
Right.
Jonathan:
Yeah. So, I think scarcity comes into play a lot with luxury goods. But going back to the question, that’s why I am looking at real estate right now and saying is all real estate luxury? Because although it’s shifting and we know that the markets that most if not all markets are different, but in many markets right now across the country, housing availability for rent and for purchase is scarce and it’s hard to find houses and there’s a lot of reasons behind that, but it’s really becoming a luxury in certain markets to be able to buy a house.
Jim:
I think. So, I think that we’ve talked for many years about how the fact that when prices go up, volume goes down, when rates go up, volume goes down. But that’s a different question right now because you have people who have, I subscribe to the theory that there is mortgage rate lock-in where if you’ve got clients with two and a quarter percent interest rates and they are never ever going to sell, never. But I think that that creates scarcity in our market because you still have people who are having kids at least for the next 15 years, 20 years.
Jonathan:
Not as many as they used to, but yeah. Let’s talk now about why real estate in most markets is scarce right now. And there’s a couple of stats out there that we all know that we can talk about, and that’s 30% of 30 to 35% of the country. We’ve seen some varying numbers here, don’t even have a mortgage on the house. So, we know that.
Keith:
At the time of purchase or you talking about on actual homeownership, okay.
Jonathan:
Homeownership right now don’t even have a mortgage in their house. They own their home free and clear, they’re paying their taxes and maintenance and that’s it. So, 85% of those with a mortgage have a rate below 5%, 99% have a rate below 6%. So, the idea here is that homeowners, prospective sellers have these golden handcuffs where if they’re going to trade up or sell and buy something new, then they are in a position where they’re going to have to…
Jim:
Their monthly has to go up.
Jonathan:
Their monthly has to go up, or they have to come to terms with the idea that they can’t be going around to their dinner parties bragging them about their two-and-a-half percent interest rate anymore. And they’re going to have to tell people they have a 6.25% interest rate, which really is totally embarrassing.
Keith:
Well, I will say as of this recording, the Freddie Mac has got their published rate at 6.39%, which is still 48, 49 basis points lower than it maxed out, which was in what, December or November of last year. We hit our kind of peak point. So, we are down, but again, to Jonathan’s point, 99% of the people out there have not bought between November and now. And so, the rates seem high in comparison to what they’re holding in their current homes.
Jim:
Well, you also have an entire generation of home buyers or people who have never seen until now rates above 5%. So, it’s easy for us to say, for me to say that I tell everybody my first loan was eight and eighth 20 some odd years ago, mom was selling real estate at 18%. It’s easy to say historically that’s where rates have been, but when your window is 10 years and people are staying in their houses for longer, that window expands. I mean they’re accustomed to 3% or 4% and they look at the news I’m not going to sell. And so, I think that for me also, you look at demographics and a creation of scarcity, some 44% of non-parents ages 18 to 49 say they are not likely to have children. So, that’s a huge number which will have impact on-
Keith:
It’s enormous for our long-term economic stability.
Jim:
Correct. But then you buttressed that with Americans in their 40s are the most likely to be sandwiched between their children and an aging parent more than half in this age group, 54% have a parent aged 65 or older or had child younger than 18 is living with them. So, I think the scarcity question is also the right kind of house that is also attainable and affordable because anybody practicing right now has clients coming with parents or coming with an older kid or they have two or three kids. You have houses that were built 30 years ago that just aren’t designed for this current reality. So, there is a real scarcity of viable homes that are also attainable.
Jonathan:
There’s a real scarcity in that. And this is one reason why home builders right now are they’re home buyer confidence index is creeping up very quickly. I read an article this past week that right now builders say that a third of the housing inventory that’s coming on the market is new construction and the historical average is 10%. And so, you combine resales are down and builders that have the resources right now are doubling down and tripling down on new construction and building houses. And so that percentage of for every 100 homes that’s on the market, if 33 of them are new construction, then that makes a big impact on the market. Gives maybe some of the ability to customize a little bit. But it also goes to the point where if I’m selling a house today, I can’t really do too much with the rate I could for my perspective buyer, I could maybe credit them a little bit and do some things to buy it down a little bit. Home builders are being super aggressive.
Jim:
They are.
Jonathan:
And they are buying rates down and sometimes they’re buying rates down for a year and getting these buyers to three and a half percent. And so, the perception is I moved in, and I can go to the party and brag that I’ve got a, “Hey, I just got a new home and I’m at three and a half percent.”
Jim:
Yeah.
Jonathan:
Well, 12 months in one day from now, you may not be anymore, but these teaser rates are right, Keith.
Keith:
And I will say to the home builder piece I pulled with one of our markets, I was able to look at going back about 10 years of what our percentage of homes sold were new construction versus resales. And we’ve gone from below 13 or right at 13% back in 2016 and we’re looking at close to 25% of all of our homes sold in that market or our new construction. And that is a tremendous change. And I think if we look at your Wells Fargo home builder sentiment index, you’re right, it’s gone from just a few months ago, only 32% of builders were seeing themselves in a positive economic situation. And it’s up 15% now in the last, just last quarter.
Jim:
That’s right. I mean for looking at some, this is John Burns fourth quarter 22, the headline is with a phenomenal quarter for profits, but a lousy quarter for no home sales because the sales are down-
Keith:
But there’s holding their prices while we’re seeing fluctuating building prices, right?
Jim:
Correct.
Keith:
So lumber, which we all know during the pandemic there were problems with tariffs, there were problems with all kinds of things happening early on that caused a massive shortage of yellow pine and which is used in the framing and that those prices hit the composite index hit something like 1,200, $1,300 and is now down to 400. That’s a tremendous savings for the home builders not getting passed along dollar for dollar because there are other costs involved. Obviously, the house is not just lumber, but that was a huge, the framing package is a huge portion of the cost of those homes and they’re now down 70% on those actual costs. But the builders are seeing absolutely good profit years, but it’s on very limited sales. I mean they’re getting better margins but very limited sales.
Jonathan:
It’s limited right now. Jim, what are your thoughts on what’s drive… If you went to Econ 101 right now, they would say typically if you look at a chart of any industry and sales are down, prices are probably down too. That’s not happening right now.
Jim:
No.
Jonathan:
Our sales are down in most markets and are down nationally, but in most markets, not all, and it’s shifting a little bit, but in most markets prices are up.
Jim:
They’re stable or up right now because the demand is still there. The homes, the home, the inventory is not there nationally. But I think you look at the pockets, there are so many pockets of our market that the luxury is crushing the market because you have people in the top X percent of the income and earning, et cetera. They’re for the most part are fine.
Jonathan:
And they’re driving the market. You look at the cash purchases. So, since October 2022 nationally, 25% of buyers were cash, but last month it was 28%. And you’re like, that’s not that big of an increase. 25 to 28% across the whole country. It’s a big increase. So, there is a ton of cash out there and we’ve got this certain tier, and I don’t want to say it this way to come across as obnoxious, but there’s a certain stratosphere financially of the market that is driving these prices right now. And so, the question is what happens if I’m joking when I say this, but what happens if we wake up tomorrow and all of a sudden, we’ve like found a mine of houses and there’s like a flood of houses that comes onto the market? What happens?
Jim:
Well, I will say it depends.
Keith:
In Virginia, we’re seeing sales off close to 24% year over year now for closings in Charlottesville, and in our MSA we are down similarly, 22, 23% off. But our price continues to go up. But for the first time in a long time, our median price of closed is lower than the median price of ask. So, now we’re finally getting to the point where we are not seeing the majority of homes selling for over asking price. And that is a shift that’s going to start pointing to then the prices start dropping.
Jonathan:
The tide is shifting.
Jim:
Yes.
Jonathan:
So, in March of last year nationally there was 5.5 offers per house and now it’s 2.7 and you still think that’s-
Keith:
2.7 is great.
Jonathan:
2.7 is great, but it’s not 5.5.
Jim:
No.
Jonathan:
So, we’re starting to see this shift and at some point, in every market, I think across a country where people are listening to it, there either has been or will be an inflection point where we’re going to start to drop off. I would bet that we’re not going to be at 2.7 this time next year.
Keith:
No.
Jim:
I’m going to write that down. I think that it’s impossible to say for… I would probably agree with you on that, but right now we’re not seeing massive shifts of inventory coming online. Again, in a broad-spectrum affordable place if in our market, new construction’s 800 give or take.
Keith:
So, the question is, do builders want to get back to that original, do they want to be building the volume that they were building? And let’s look back to the car market for a second. So, in the beginning of the pandemic, when we suddenly had this shortage of chips and cars were not available, suddenly people went to dealerships, and they weren’t finding anything. They had to wait for cars. Car dealers nationwide had the best year ever last year, hands down the most profitable year they’ve ever had. They do not want cars on their lots anymore. They want to do away with their inventory-
Jonathan:
Scarcity.
Keith:
They want to have this piece. So, the question is, are builders operating in the same mindset of go back to pre-2005, builders were putting out spec houses all the time, and then they went to this pre-sale model, which they were like, “Oh, this is great. Now I can go to the bank and say, I’ve already sold the house. They’re getting better lending, they’re getting better margins.” We’ve kind of maintained that model, at least in most of our markets where we’re really not seeing a whole lot of spec construction. We’re seeing mostly pre-sold homes. And are those more profitable? Are those better? Are the margins better for builders where they want to keep the scarcity going and they want to keep people waiting for their product?
Jim:
I mean, if you’re making more profit by selling fewer houses, it makes sense to stay at that level. So, I think that it, again, not a builder, a national local home builder, but I think that if you can achieve a higher price point at a higher profit margin by doing 25% fewer houses every year, why wouldn’t you?
Keith:
Well, it also enables you to sell the product that people are asking, the actual buyer is asking for. So, when we’re talking about being sandwiched between children and aging parents, you’re now able to go in and buy the house that does have the first-floor master, if that’s something you need for your parents or for yourself. It allows us to do more and more areas are zoning for accessory dwelling units. And so, we’re using those for granny flats or for rental properties or, and I think going to this scarcity model, this presale construction does allow the builders to plan better for the actual demand, not just for a perceived demand or we’re not buying what we’re told we want, we’re actually able to buy what we want.
Jonathan:
Yeah. So, I think that from a builder’s standpoint, I’ll just chime in quickly and say I think there’s a balance in there with the home builders… They clearly have to build a certain number of houses, but if you go too far, then if a builder has 127 homes on the market, even though if there was just 128 total homes in the market, but I have 127 of them, well a buyer’s going to realize I’ve got some negotiating powers.
Keith:
Well, I think you might see that with apartments in the next couple of years.
Jonathan:
I agree we’re starting to see it. So, we are starting to see, and I’ve had conversations in Virginia and across the country with people that are saying rent prices and demand for rental housing has definitely dropped off. And so, for sure that’s definitely happening. And it goes back to scarcity. There’s been this massive boom that started in the pandemic, these apartments are coming online and all of a sudden, I’ve got options. Yeah, I’ve got six options to choose from. So, maybe I’m not paying 17.50, I’m going to take 16.75.
Jim:
I mean, I think that a twist on that scarcity, I’m looking at a story now talking about the aging population. Eight in 10 seniors, they want to stay, they want to age in place. What it says, 94% of the 150 million homes in the US had at least one aging accessible feature in 2020, just 10% were ready to accommodate older residents. So, I think that a house is probably going to be renovated and it’s going to keep one more house off the market, but it’s going to keep one more buyer out of the market. So, I think that you’re looking at a housing stock that is not ready for the next 10 years. And so, I think there are going to be opportunities in there for realtors to take advantage of that, but also for consultants and remodelers and builders, if they shift out of building, they’ve got a monster market to step into.
Keith:
Well, I think as we talk about the interest rates, when we talk about the number of people who are sitting mortgage less or super low mortgaged remodeling is going to be the key for all kinds of real estate growth for the next 15 years. I mean, that’s a brilliant place to be positioned right now because that’s where people are going to be investing their money because they can do it in smaller tranches.
Jonathan:
So, remodeling leads to continued scarcity. So, I’ll not backtrack completely, but slightly backtrack on my statement that this time next year there’s going to be fewer than 2.7 offers on each house. Maybe not, if the scarcity continues, and we’ve had this conversation last week, and I’ll tell the story this quick 45 second story right now, but talking about scarcity and pricing, back when I was 20 years old, I had Jimmy Buffett for president stickers printed up and I went around to concert all up and down the East Coast and sold them for $3 for one sticker and two for five. And I sold all summer. I paid for all the concerts. I went to nine concerts and sold and paid for everything I needed to. Well, a couple of years later, eBay became a thing, and I stumbled across a small handful of stickers, and I put one on eBay and I got $47.
And I was like, “This is amazing. I’m going to be rich.” I put one on the next one on. I got a couple dollars less 42 and then 37, and I sold a bunch of them in the 25 to 30 range. And I’d say probably sold 15 to 20 and above $25. And then all of a sudden, the price dropped. The next one I got $7 for, $5 for. And it comes down to there’s a certain segment of the market that’s willing to pay pretty much within reason, whatever they can afford for something. But as that segment of the market is, there’s not as much demand and there’s the perceived fact that there’s not scarcity that these stickers continue to come up. People are like, “Well, there’s not just one. There’s this guy’s got a stack of them and I’m just going to wait for the prices to drop.”
Jim:
You need to bundle them with Nest golf pencils.
Jonathan:
We do have some Nest golf pencils limited edition.
Jim:
I mean, I would wager that scarcity is what we’re seeing in the market to a certain degree is that people, there’s the actual and real scarcity, but also perceived scarcity because real estate is timed. People don’t have the luxury to say, “Hey, if a sticker comes on eBay, I’ll buy it. My kid starts school. My job starts on June 15th.”
Keith:
I’m new market and I need a house. And I do think as we talk about what’s going to drive the market, people do move and move communities. They take new jobs when they have children, when there are driving forces that require a shift in their housing model, people will be paying seven, 8% on interest rates and it will become the new normal. I mean, I think this is a mindset adjustment. I mean, this is realizing that scarcity, we may not have 30 homes to look at in a weekend, but there are options available. They just may not be ideal.
Jonathan:
The other thing that I’ll say is I’ve been in real estate for 20 years, so I can only go back 20 years. But communication right now and news stories and social media and conversations at parties, word spreads quickly with everything. So, the fact that there were 5.5 offers per house and there’s news stories and people posting on TikTok and Instagram and Facebook about their challenges getting houses, that just creates that perception that there’s scarcity. If you took this market right now and rewound it to 1972 where everything was the same in terms of inventory and demand and all those economic foundations were the same.
Keith:
But you took away the shareability of-
Jonathan:
But you took away the ability for people to communicate broadly, what does the market look like? I don’t think it going up and to the right from a price standpoint as much as it is now, because it’s all… You would know if a house sold by looking at the MLS book like, “Oh, that house sold last week.” You wouldn’t know that it had 19 offers on it. And so, it’s the speed of communication and the ease of communication and getting the word out that I think is also driving that frenzy, right? It’s a frenzy out there.
Keith:
So, I think that the thing that I would counsel consumers listen to this and agents, and brokers listen to this is be mindful of the information that you ingest.
Jonathan:
Yes.
Keith:
And also, be mindful of the information that you share because I think that we all have responsibility to one, be as educated as possible and what we read and process, but also and how we prep our clients. ‘Cause it’s easy to say this market is X, but if you say it with a dispassionate mindset and not the emotional, “Oh my God, this is awful.” I think that we can have an impact on the market.
Jim:
I think the interesting question though that I’m just kind of going back to this whole thing started on the question of luxury and the issue of, are we talking about has real estate become a luxury good period? The ability to purchase? I mean, we’re talking about this scarcity with just this, we’re all kind of accepting the fact that there is an enormous scarcity and enormous pricing differential that we’ve seen. And I think part of what we talk about regularly is the fact that we need housing should be more of a human, more of an opportunity, more of something that we want as not just a high aspirational attainment, but something that everybody’s searching for. And I think it is amazing the way this conversation’s kind of gone in a very different direction very quickly, because that’s the reality of that, of the current market environment.
Keith:
Well, it’s no solution that I can put forth-
Jim:
No.
Keith:
…of how to solve this. So, I think that the reality is, and the recognition is housing is luxury right now.
Jonathan:
Housing is luxury right now. I bought my first house at 24 and there’s no way right now with prices that I could buy by 24 and last year, last 27% of purchases were first-time home buyers. If you rewind that to 2010, it was 53%. And so, we’ve gotten to this point where it’s the second homes and the higher-end properties that are selling and prices are getting pushed up. And look, I think it’s a luxury item right now, and more homes come on the market. Maybe my tune changes. But if you talk to somebody, if you ran into somebody or a 26-year-old reached out to you and said, “I want to buy my first house,” and you vetted them and they had the ability to buy that first house, you would think, man, this is a luxury for this 26-year-old.
Jim:
But they wouldn’t recognize it.
Jonathan:
Maybe not.
Jim:
But we would because of our perspective, right?
Jonathan:
Yeah.
Jim:
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